Microsoft Yahoo Outcomes
Play the MSFT-YHOO scenario guessing game
Posted Feb 12 2008, 03:39 PM by Kim Peterson
Filed under: Google, Microsoft, Yahoo
Rating: Citigroup's Mark Mahaney has revised his what-will-happen analysis for Microsoft's bid to acquire Yahoo. The Vegas oddsmakers should get in on this! Here's Mahaney's latest, with my thoughts included:
Outcome #1: Microsoft ups its bid and Yahoo accepts. Probability = 55%
I'd put the odds a little higher than that. Maybe 65% with the noise coming from Yahoo shareholders lately. A fund manager from Legg Mason, the second-biggest Yahoo shareholder, said in a letter this week that "it will be hard for YHOO to come up with alternatives that deliver more value than MSFT will ultimately be willing to pay." Analyst Marianne Wolk of Susquehanna gives this scenario a 75% probability.
Outcome #2: Another bidder gets Yahoo. Probability = 5%
Chances are slim. The big potential bidders have backed out, and Google can't bid because of antitrust concerns. There is a rumor that private equity was looking at buying Yahoo for $23-$25 a share before Microsoft jumped in. That price is long gone now.
Outcome #3: Deal blocked by regulators. Probability = 10%
This depends on how skilled Google is at the lobbying game. And though Google is slowly figuring out Washington, it still can't play the game like Microsoft can.
Outcome #4: Yahoo stays intact with some sort of strategic move, such as outsourcing search to Google. Probability = 30%
This is a real possibility, although Microsoft would fight outsourcing tooth and nail. The Precursor Blog says antitrust officials would never allow outsourcing to go through because Google has 75% of search advertising revenue and Yahoo has 11%. That kind of consolidation would raise red flags with regulators.
Thanks to Barron's for the Mahaney scenarios.
So what's your take on the different outcomes? Let me know in the comments.
Posted Feb 12 2008, 03:39 PM by Kim Peterson
Filed under: Google, Microsoft, Yahoo
Rating: Citigroup's Mark Mahaney has revised his what-will-happen analysis for Microsoft's bid to acquire Yahoo. The Vegas oddsmakers should get in on this! Here's Mahaney's latest, with my thoughts included:
Outcome #1: Microsoft ups its bid and Yahoo accepts. Probability = 55%
I'd put the odds a little higher than that. Maybe 65% with the noise coming from Yahoo shareholders lately. A fund manager from Legg Mason, the second-biggest Yahoo shareholder, said in a letter this week that "it will be hard for YHOO to come up with alternatives that deliver more value than MSFT will ultimately be willing to pay." Analyst Marianne Wolk of Susquehanna gives this scenario a 75% probability.
Outcome #2: Another bidder gets Yahoo. Probability = 5%
Chances are slim. The big potential bidders have backed out, and Google can't bid because of antitrust concerns. There is a rumor that private equity was looking at buying Yahoo for $23-$25 a share before Microsoft jumped in. That price is long gone now.
Outcome #3: Deal blocked by regulators. Probability = 10%
This depends on how skilled Google is at the lobbying game. And though Google is slowly figuring out Washington, it still can't play the game like Microsoft can.
Outcome #4: Yahoo stays intact with some sort of strategic move, such as outsourcing search to Google. Probability = 30%
This is a real possibility, although Microsoft would fight outsourcing tooth and nail. The Precursor Blog says antitrust officials would never allow outsourcing to go through because Google has 75% of search advertising revenue and Yahoo has 11%. That kind of consolidation would raise red flags with regulators.
Thanks to Barron's for the Mahaney scenarios.
So what's your take on the different outcomes? Let me know in the comments.
About
Forum
WHY I WANT TO LIVE IN THE PHILIPPINES 1 Reply
Started by Ralph Posadas in F.Y.I. Emails To and From Friends. Last reply by Robert A. deLannoy Mar 4.
Filipino Style Contracting and Filipino Q&A
Started by CACN Network, Inc. in F.Y.I. Emails To and From Friends Mar. 18, 2008.
IMPORTANT PLEASE READ From - Barbara Baker, Secretary Directorate of Training U.S. Army Military Police School.
Started by CACN Network, Inc. in F.Y.I. Emails To and From Friends Mar. 13, 2008.
Microsoft Yahoo Outcomes
Started by CACN Network, Inc. in F.Y.I. Emails To and From Friends Feb. 13, 2008.
© 2009 Created by CACN Network, Inc. on Ning. Create Your Own Social Network
